Monday, February 11, 2019

An Average Problem

Polar Vortex beauty: Icy branches reach to a bright blue sky
January was just an average month here at Bean Hill. We matched the historic monthly high and low average temperature exactly!

Except that January was anything but average temperature-wise. Instead, January was a month of extremes SO extreme, that it all evened out. Nine days had highs 10 or more degrees above average; January 8 was 30 degrees above the historic average for the date. Three days had highs that were 23, 27, and 35 degrees below average. Thirteen nights had lows that were above average by 10-26 degrees; five nights had temperatures that were 17-25 degrees below average. We had high winds that brought down more trees in the woods; we had heavy rain and even a thunderstorm. We had snow. Schools closed for two days because of the extreme cold when the polar vortex roared into town.



Blue Jay...

Numbers DO lie, especially if they're average numbers. If I shared only the monthly average high and low for Bean Hill, you'd begin to wonder what all the climate change hysteria is about. But when you look at January's daily records, the extremes that characterize climate change (or as Ann has dubbed it, climate confusion) are there in all their scariness. When January 2019 came out exactly average, after we experienced anything but average, I got to thinking about how many times over the last two years of record-keeping I all too often fell into the "kinda average" trap. I'd record the daily stats, fret over too much rain, or too much heat, or too much..weather...and then I'd work out the monthly average and compare it to the historic record. I'd see there were only a couple of degrees difference between the Bean Hill averages and the historic average, and I'd find that slight difference almost comforting. Even though I might have spent the month complaining about the crazy weather, even though day-by-day I noted the aberrations, the monthly average smoothed things over. I'd think: Maybe I'm wrong; maybe it's not as bad as I fear; maybe I am a tad hysterical. January 2019 made me realize those monthly averages often lulled me into a false sense of security.


...And a Downy pose with a peanut trophy
At the end of December, 2018, I thought I might not continue this blog. Then I read David Leonhardt's op ed, "The Polar Vortex and the Climate" (New York Times, February 1), and was reminded why I am doing this:

I've argued before for using weather patterns as evidence of climate change, and I continue to think it's the right thing to do. Nothing else--not dark vision of the future, not appeals to future generations, not promises of green jobs--has yet inspired the necessary action on the climate. The growing frequency of extreme weather has the potential to change people's minds.


I write this to share weather-related observations from this little piece of earth called Bean Hill. I write this to provide local evidence of "the growing frequency of extreme weather". I write this hoping to change minds. I know among my small readership, I preach to the choir, but maybe a choir member will pass this blog along to someone whose mind might be changed.

Thank you.

Primary color and glassy branches